KGI Asia Commentary

2024.08.15 10:00

Hang Seng Index fell 60 points on Wednesday

The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,113 points for the day, down 60 points or 0.4%. The Hang Seng Technology Index reported at 3,395 points, down 33 points or 1.0%. The HSCEI Index fell 24 points, or 0.4%, to 6,025 points. The market turnover was HK$68.0billion.

 

Dow closes above 40,000 as inflation continues to cool

The Dow closed above 40,000 on Wednesday as data showed a further slowdown in inflation, which is expected to bring the Federal Reserve closer to starting a rate-cutting cycle next month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 242 points, or 0.6%, to close at 40,008.12 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq was flat. Intel sold 1.18 million shares of British chip company Arm Holdings in the second quarter, a regulatory filing showed on Tuesday, sending its shares down more than 2%. The chipmaker said earlier this month it would cut more than 15% of its workforce and suspend its dividend as spending on traditional data center semiconductors declines and it shifts toward artificial intelligence chips. Shares of packaged food maker Kellanova rose nearly 8% after the company agreed to be acquired by chocolate giant Mars for $83.50. Bloomberg quoted unnamed sources as saying that the U.S. Department of Justice is considering plans to control Google's dominance in online search, including spinning off Alphabet. The company's Class A shares fell 2%. In terms of financial reports, shares of healthcare company Cardinal Health rose nearly 4% after the company's fourth-quarter results exceeded analysts' expectations and raised its full-year forecast.

 

CPI data add further evidence of cooling inflation

The U.S. CPI annual growth rate slowed to 2.9%, down from 3.0% in June and below the 3% expected by economists. The core CPI rose 3.2% yoy in July, lower than the expected 3.3%. This report was released just a day after the lower-than-expected July PPI was announced, further confirming that U.S. inflation is gradually cooling. Following the data release, traders have reduced the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 50 basis points in September to around one-third, and they continue to estimate a reduction of over 100 basis points by the end of the year.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net outflow of HK1.04bn on Wednesday of which China Mobile (941) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.52bn; followed by Wuxi Bio (2269). Tracker Fund (2800) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$1.47bn, followed by CSOP HS TECH (3033).

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During this year’s 618 promotion period, JD.com’s GMV growth rate ranked last among the major platforms, with an increase of only 6% compared with the same period last year, while the annual growth rate of the five major platforms was 14%. The reason for the weak sales is that more than 60% of direct retail revenue comes from electronic/home appliance products with higher average selling prices. However, JD can actually benefit from the trade in policy. The NDRC and the Ministry of Finance recently released a new "Trade-in" program for home appliances, coordinating the arrangement of around RMB300 billion in special long-term government bonds to subsidize the home appliance, passenger vehicle, and agricultural machinery sectors. The market expects this home appliance subsidy program to drive several hundred billion RMB in home appliance sales. As JD.com has a significant proportion of home appliance sales, the company is expected to benefit from this policy. Currently, JD.com's stock price has fallen below most of its major moving averages. The market estimates JD.com's 2Q24 EPS to be RMB6.14, up 13.9% year-over-year. The FY24 estimated P/E ratio is around 8.1x, close to a 5-year low. JD.com's stock price has retreated 26.7% from its high of around HKD136.8 on May 20th (as of August 9th), a larger decline than the 16.6% drop in the KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF over the same period. Key points to watch for in the upcoming earnings report include the buyback amount, this year's GMV forecast, and profit guidance. Target price: $110; Stop- Loss price: $96.9.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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