KGI Asia Commentary

2023.04.06 09:00

Hang Seng Index fell 134 points on Tuesday

The Hang Seng Index fell 134 points or 0.7% to 20,274 on Tuesday. HSTECH fell 69 points or 1.6% to 4,233 and HSCEI fell 64 points or 0.9% to 6,875. Daily market turnover was HK$119.3bn.

 

Stocks mixed as investors worry about economic outlook

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%, or 80 points, the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq fell more than 1%. Shares of Apple, Amazon and Meta platforms fell, leading the market lower, as weaker-than-expected private payrolls and U.S. services data in March sparked fears of a new round of recession and soured market sentiment. On the other hand, shares of Johnson & Johnson rose after the company announced a settlement of about $9 billion over claims that its talcum powder caused cancer.

 

IMF warns long-term losses of 2 percent of global output due to fragmenting FDI

IMF estimate that long-term global output losses are close to 2 percent of world gross domestic product. These losses are likely to be unevenly distributed. Emerging market and developing economies are particularly affected by reduced access to investment from advanced economies, due to reduced capital formation and productivity gains from the transfer of better technologies and know-how.

 

ADP private sector employment report shows job growth slowed in March

Private sector hiring rose by just 145,000 in March, down from 261,000 in February and below expectations for a gain of 210,000. Financial activities lost 51,000 jobs and professional and business services lost 46,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality added 98,000, trade, transport and utilities added 56,000 and construction added 53,000. The weaker-than-expected data suggested that the labor market that had supported the economy was starting to slow. Meanwhile, the ISM services index fell to 51.2 in March from 55.1 in February, missing the consensus estimate of 54.5.

Hong Kong Stock Connect was closed on Wednesday.

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Interest rate has always been regarded as the opportunity cost of holding gold. Although the interest rate remains high this year, the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of interest rate hike given the worsening economy prospect. The cost of holding gold will increase at a slower rate. With the rising risk of global recession, gold will play a significant role as a safe haven. Investors who are optimistic about the price of gold may consider deploying through gold ETFs, including SPDR Gold ETF (2840.HK). The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) adopted the LBMA Gold Price PM as the reference benchmark price of gold in calculating the Net Asset Value (NAV) of the Trust. By buying and selling physical gold to support the issuance of ETF shares, the ETF price movement match with the gold price movement. Target price: $1600; Stop- Loss price: $1374.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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