KGI Asia Commentary

2023.04.04 09:00

HSI rose 9 points on Monday

The Hang Seng Index performed weakly on the first trading day in April. The HSI once fell 120 points to 20,279 in mid-day. It gradually rebounded during afternoon session. The HSI closed at 20,409 for today, up 9 points or 0.0%. The HSTECH closed at 4,302, down 1 point or 0.0%. The HSCEI fell 28 points, or 0.4%, to 6,940 points. The market's full-day turnover was HK$120.42bn. OPEC+ announced oil production cuts. In May, the combined supply of various countries decreased by more than 1.16mn barrels. The rise in oil prices caused CNOOC (0883) and PetroChina (857) price to rise 2.4% and 1.5% respectively today.

 

U.S. manufacturing PMI continues to contract and shows no signs of improvement

The U.S. PMI continue to indicate economic contraction. The U.S. ISM announced that the manufacturing PMI index in March was 46.3, the lowest since May 2020. It is also far below market consensus of 47.5. One of the main component, new orders sub-index, fell to 44.3, reflecting a fall in demand. In addition, the recent sharp tightening of credit by banks has made the contraction of the manufacturing industry more obvious.

 

The three major U.S. stock indexes showed mixed movements on Monday. The D&J and the S&P 500 both rose 327 points and 15 points to close at 33,601 points and 4,124 points. The Nasdaq index fell 32 points to close at 12,189.

 

Analysts warned the move of OPEC+ may push oil price above $100.

Oil prices rose after OPEC+ announced it would slash production by more than 1 million barrels per day. Analysts warned the move may push oil back above $100. Yellen called the output cut an “unconstructive act” for efforts made by the U.S. to curb inflation.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$5.2bnn on Monday, of which Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest net inflow of HK$1.01 bn; followed by Tencent (700). Meituan (3690) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$435mn, followed by Kuaishou (1024).

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In 2022, the Group achieved a revenue of RMB 3,239bn, grew 23.9% yoy. This was primarily due to the increase in the prices of the Group’s most oil and gas products. The profit attributable to owners of the Company was RMB149bn, grew 62.1% yoy. The realised revenue of the Oil, Gas and New Energy segment for 2022 was RMB929bn, representing an increase of 35.0% yoy, which was primarily due to the increase in the prices and sales volumes of oil and gas products such as crude oil and natural gas.  The average realised crude oil price of the Group in 2022 was US$92.12 per barrel, representing an increase of 40.5% as compared with US$65.58 per barrel for last year. In 2022, the Oil, Gas and New Energy segment realised an operating profit of RMB165.748bn. In 2022, the capital expenditures of the Group amounted to RMB274bn, representing an increase of 9.2% yoy. It is expected that the Capex in 2023 will be reduced by RMB31bn. The Board recommends a final cash dividend of RMB0.22 per share for 2022 to all shareholders of the Company. The total amount of cash dividends reaches approximately RMB40.265bn. (The  final cash dividend in 2021 was RMB0.09622 per share.) In addition, the Company announced its first repurchase plan in history, which intends to repurchase no more than 10% of the total number of A shares and H shares. Both share repurchase plan and the increase of DPS became the revaluation catalyst for the share price. Target price: $5.3; Stop- Loss price: $4.2

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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