KGI Asia Commentary

2023.10.31 09:00

Hang Seng Index rose 7 points on Monday

The Hang Seng Index opened 173 points lower and then narrowed its losses. It rose 7 points to 17,406 point at market close. The H-Share Index fell 19 points, or 0.3%, to 5,960 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 48 points or 1.2% at 3,854 points. The market turnover was HK$92.5 bn. Numbers of Chinese banks announced results that were worse than expected. The Chinese banking sector under pressure, with share prices falling between 1% and 4%. WuXi Biologics (2269)'s spin-off from WuXi Alliance passed the listing hearing. WuXi Biologics and its sister WuXi AppTec (2359) rose 5.7% and 4.1%.

 

Germany’s October CPI beats consensus

Germany, one of the biggest economies in EU, has announced latest CPI figure which bring a positive news in view of weak economic growth. Germany's preliminary CPI value in October increased by 3% YoY, the lowest growth rate since June 2021, and market forecasts were for a rise of 3.3%. The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell to 4.3% in October from 4.6% the previous month. The data supports the European Central Bank's decision to maintain interest rates for the first time in the past year.

 

US market generally rose yesterday. The DJIA rose 511 points, or 1.6%, to close at 32,928; the S&P 500 rose 49 points, or 1.2%, to close at 4,166; and the Nasdaq composite rose 146 points, or 1.2%, to close at 32,928 points.

 

U.S. consumer credit ratings continue to rise

U.S. GDP growth in the 3Q23 reflects strong economic momentum, with household consumption contributing significantly. The recent credit scores of American consumers also show that there is no excessive use of credit cards. Although Americans' credit card balances exceeded $1tn for the first time, the national average credit score rose 2 percentage points from a year ago to a new high of 718, according to a report released by FICO, well-known for consumer credit scores. The score has continued to rise after 2010, reflecting that the credit health of American consumers continues to improve. Good scores are generally above 670. Scores for U.S. consumers have been steadily improving since the covid-19 outbreak, while government stimulus packages and a surge in household savings helped jump scores to record highs.

 

The net inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect on Monday was HK$2.25bn. Among them, Xiaomi Group (1810) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$600mn; followed by SMIC (0981). Kuaishou (1024) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$550mn; followed by China Mobile (0941).

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On October 24, Tmall’s Double 11 started pre-sale, which got off to a good start. Within one hour, more than 1,300 brands saw a year-on-year turnover increase of over 200%, and nearly 700 brands saw a year-on-year turnover increase of over 500%. Alibaba 1Q23 revenue was RMB234.15bn, increased 14% yoy, and its non-GAAP net income was RMB44.9bn, increased 48% yoy; adjusted EBITA increased by 32% yoy to RMB45.3bn. The yoy increase was mainly due to revenue growth and improved operating efficiency. All six major segment recorded improvement. Revenue from Taobao and Tmall Group increased by 12% yoy. In June 2023, Taobao app daily active users (DAU) increased by 6.5% yoy. Customer management revenue increased by 10% yoy, higher than market expectations, mainly due to the increased willingness to invest in merchant advertising and the increase in online physical goods GMV generated on Taobao and Tmall. EBITA was RMB49,319 million, up 9% yoy. Overall, this quarter's performance is satisfactory. Meanwhile, the spin-off of its Cloud, Freshippo, and Cainiao businesses can continue to be the catalyst of Alibaba. Target price: $110; Stop- Loss price: $74.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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