KGI Asia Commentary

2024.06.24 09:47

Hang Seng Index fell 307 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 136 points lower on Friday, at 18,199 points, and fell 307 points, or 1.7%, to 18,028 points for the day; the China National Index fell 116 points, or 1.8%, to 6,440 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 66 points, or 1.7%, to 18,028 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 66 points, or 1.7%, to 6,440 points; 3,701 points. The total daily turnover of the market was HK$129 billion. SenseTime (20) raised nearly HK$2 billion through a share placement at a discount of 9.1%. It opened lower but later rose 3% to HK$1.36. Heavyweight technology stocks came under pressure, with Meituan (3690), Alibaba (9988) and Tencent (700) falling between 1.6 and 3.1%.

 

Last Friday was the day of Quadruple witching for U.S. stocks

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday. The Dow Jones index rose 15.57 points, or 0.04%, to 39150.33 points; the Nasdaq index fell 32.23 points, or 0.18%, to 17689.36 points; the S&P 500 index fell 8.55 points, The decrease was 0.16%, reported at 5464.62 points. The Dow rose 1.47% last week, recording its largest weekly gain since May. The Nasdaq rose 0.5 points from last Friday's close. The S&P 500 rose 0.66%, marking its third consecutive weekly gain.

 

Last Friday was the settlement day for option futures on U.S. stock indexes and individual stocks, and the market called it the " Quadruple Witching Day", the performance of U.S. stocks last Friday was relatively volatile. In terms of economic data, the United States released second-hand home sales data last Friday, and S&P Global released the service and manufacturing PMI index. Firstly, second-hand home sales in the United States fell for the third consecutive month in May. At the same time, housing prices hit a new high. Second-hand home sales fell 0.7% month-on-month to an annualized rate of 4.11 million units, in line with market expectations.

 

U.S. service and manufacturing sectors remain resilient

Last Friday, the United States announced the S&P Global Service Industry and Manufacturing PMI Index. The service and manufacturing PMI in June were 55.1 and 51.7 respectively, which were both better than the market expectations of 53.4 and 51. Both results did not fall as expected by the market, but instead, both expanded, reflecting that U.S. economic activity remains resilient. It is worth noting that the report mentioned that price pressures have further weakened, this gives a positive signal to the Fed for future rate movement.

 

The net inflow of Hong Kong Stock Connect on Friday was HK$4.58 billion, of which China Construction Bank (939) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$670 million; followed by China Mobile (941). Yankuang Energy (1171) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$94 million; followed by United Energy (467).

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Earlier, the market reported that the Central Government may abolish the 20% dividend tax payable by mainland investors to buy Hong Kong stocks through the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" on July 1, the anniversary of Hong Kong's return to the motherland, and the relevant shares performed well, including China Mobile. We have repeatedly recommended the stock for its stable earnings growth, clear dividend policy and benefit from market cap management of state-owned enterprises. By incorporating market value management into the KPI of state-owned enterprise management, it may promote Chinese telecommunications stocks to continue to increase their dividend payout ratios in the future.  In May, the total number of mobile customers of China Mobile was 998 million, with a net increase of 1.078 million customers in a month. The net increase in the first five months was 7.44 million. The total number of 5G network customers is 502 million. For the “Business” market, the Group focused its efforts on the integrated development of network, cloud and DICT (data, information and communications technology). It fully leveraged its advantage in cloud and network resources and maintained strong revenue growth momentum. With a continuously rising share of revenue contribution from digital transformation, the revenue structure of China Mobile has become more balanced and robust, and the momentum of sustainable growth has been enhanced. Management expects CAPEX to decline over the next 2-3 years, which should help free cash flow of the Group to remain strong. Target price: $82; Stop- Loss price: $67.5.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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