KGI Asia Commentary

2024.01.23 09:00

Hang Seng Index fell 347 points on Monday

The Hang Seng Index closed at 14,961 points for the day, down 347 points or 2.3%. The Hang Seng Technology Index reported at 3,035 points, down 94 points or 3.0%. The H-Share Index fell 125 points, or 2.4%, to 5,001 points. The market turnover was HK$ 112.17 bn.

Dow rises more than 100 points, closing above 38,000 for first time ever

 

The S&P 500 and the Dow closed at record highs on Monday, with the latter closing above 38,000 for the first time, as technology stocks continued their gains ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and key economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 138 points to close at a record 38,001.81 points, an increase of 0.36%; the S&P 500 Index rose 0.2% to close at 4,850.43 points, closing at a new high for the second consecutive trading day. The Nadak rose 0.4%. Fueling the rally, large technology stocks were mostly higher as investors awaited earnings reports from some of the biggest companies, including Netflix on Tuesday and Tesla on Wednesday, as well as 3M and Intel. Department store chain Macy's Inc closed 3% higher after the company rejected a $5.8 billion private offer from Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management.

 

Key growth, inflation data to be released soon

 

Important economic data will be released this week, which may affect the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. The latest data on the economy's growth trajectory is due on Wednesday, with fourth-quarter GDP data to be released. Following growth of 4.9% in the previous quarter, GDP growth is expected to reach 2.0% in the fourth quarter. Meanwhile, key U.S. inflation data on Thursday will provide new insights into progress towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with many now changing expectations for a rate cut in March. The chances of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March have dropped to 50% from less than 80% a week ago, after a series of improving retail sales and consumer confidence data.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$0.65bn on Monday, of which Meituan (3690) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.35bn; followed by CM Bank (3968). Tencent (700) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.21bn, followed by China Mobile (941). 

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IDC report earlier pointed out that global PC shipments will resume positive growth in 2024. One of the important factors is that the development of AI has attracted market attention, and this year’s technological progress in commercial computers and gaming computers will drive PC sales performance. Lenovo, recently launched its AI PC at the CES exhibition, has become the focus of the market. We are positive towards Lenovo, as the inventories of the PC industry have been cleared and thereafter the fundamentals are gradually improving. The operating profit margin of the company's IDG segment rose to 7.4% in 2Q23, close to a record high. The company has a leading position in the global PC market and can revolutionize the industry in the AI PC cycle. Target price: $10.8; Stop- Loss price: $9.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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