KGI Asia Commentary

2024.05.07 09:47

HSI rose 102 points on Monday

The Hang Seng Index continued to rise for ten consecutive trading days. The HSI opened 12 points higher and fell 9 points in at the mid-day. The index rebounded significantly in the afternoon, rising 102 points or 0.6%, to close at 18,578; the HSCEI rose 25 points, or 0.4%, to close at 6,572; the HSTECH rose 36 points, or 0.9%, to close at 4,007. The total daily turnover of the market was HK$144.49bn. Chinese technology stocks generally performed well today, with share prices rising between 0.4% and 2.3%. Rate cut expectation boosted gold stocks, with Shandong Gold (1787) rising 4.9%.

 

Visitors to Macao continue to grow during the Workers' Day

During the Mainland’s Labor Day holiday that just passed, the number of visitors to Macau continued to grow. The total number of visitors to Macau was approximately 605,000, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%. Compared with 795,000 passengers in 2019, the total number of passengers this year has recovered by approximately 76.1%. The average hotel occupancy rate during the holiday period was 89.2%, up 4.5 percentage points from 2023, and still far from the pre-covid level of 96.6%.

 

All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains. The Nasdaq rose 192 points, or 1.2%, to 16,349; the S&P 500 rose 52 points, or 1.0%, to 5,180; and the DJIA rose 176 points, or 0.5%, to close at 38,852.

 

Fed member says rate cut will eventually come

New York Fed President John Williams, who has a vote on the FOMC this year, attended the event and said that the Fed will eventually cut interest rates, but the time is not determined. The inflation figure may be up and down in unpredictable ways. Williams' comments are believed to be to reduce the market's over-sensitivity to inflation or employment numbers. He also expected that U.S. GDP growth will slow down this year, mainly due to more cautious household spending.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HK$5.09bn on Monday. Among them, Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$5.52bn; followed by Bank of China (3988). Meituan (3690) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$960mn, followed by CNOOC (0883).

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The company's beer business recorded a turnover of RMB36.8bn in FY23, a yoy increase of 4.5%. Sales volume reached 11.15 million kiloliters, a slight increase of 0.5% yoy. The average unit price was RMB3,306 per kiloliter, a yoy increase of 4%. The increase in turnover and average unit price was mainly due to the upgrade of product mix. During the year, the Group continuously promoted the strategy of “Winning at Premiumization”. In FY23, the sales volume of sub-premium beer segment and above will be 2.5 million kiloliters, a yoy increase of 18.9%, accounting for 22.4% of the overall sales, increase by 3.5 percentage points annually. With the continuous product mix upgrade, combined with the cost reduction of some packaging materials, the gross profit margin of the beer business increased by 1.7 percentage points to 40.2%. NI in FY23 amounted to RMB5.15bn, a yoy increase of 18.6%. Looking forward to 2024 result, it is expected that premiumization will continue. Coupled with the cancellation of the previous anti-dumping tariffs on Australian barley, production cost will be alleviated marginally, which may improve the profitability of the beer business. In addition, with the domestic catering industry recovered, the beer industry is expected to benefit. Target price: $43; Stop- Loss price: $34.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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