KGI Asia Commentary

2023.03.06 09:00

Hang Seng Index rose 138 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 274 points higher on Friday, at 20,703 points, and narrowed its gains throughout the day to 138 points, closing at 20,567 points. The China Enterprises Index rose 82 points or 1.2% to 6,940 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 85 points or 2% to 4,211 points. The market turnover of the whole day was HK$105.8 bn. CRRC (1766) rose 6.6%. The three major Chinese telecom stocks all broke the top. China Unicom (762) was the best performer, up 3.1% to HK$6.27. Among technology stocks, Bilibili (9626) announced its results on Thursday and its stock price rose more than 10% on Friday, making it the best performer in the Hang Seng Technology Index.

 

Fed releases latest semi-annual monetary report to Congress

Last Friday, the Federal Reserve released the latest semi-annual monetary report to Congress, which mentioned that in order to fight inflation, it is necessary to continue to increase the target of the federal funds rate, and pointed out that the easing of the tense labor market conditions will determine the prospects for future economic slowdown. There will be a series of employment data released in the United States this week, such as JOLTS job vacancies data and ADP employment data on Wednesday, and non-agricultural employment data on Friday.

 

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, with all three major indexes posting gains for the week. U.S. Treasury yields fell back, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note falling below 4%. Investors began to reflect on the central bank's future rate hike policy path after several Fed officials spoke. The Dow rose 387 points, or 1.17%, to 33,391 point; the Nasdaq rose 226 points, or 1.97%, to 11,689point; the S&P 500 rose 64 points, or 1.61%, to 4,045  point.

 

Opening of China's two major conference

The First Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (on the 4th) and the First Session of the Fourteenth National People's Congress (on the 5th) officially opened. The latter meeting will last for 8 and a half days, with a total of 9 agenda items. Including: deliberating the government work report, releasing the draft plan, deliberating the institutional reform plan of the State Council, etc. At the first meeting of the National People's Congress on the first day, Premier Li Keqiang pointed out that the main expected goals of China's development this year are about 5% growth in GDP; about 5.5% urban surveyed unemployment rate; about 3% increase in consumer prices.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$ 2.251 bn on Friday, among which China Mobile (941) had the largest net inflow of HK$357 mn; followed by CSOP Hang Seng Technology (3033). China Construction Bank (939) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$387 million, followed by China Merchants Bank (3968).

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The total number of customers of China Mobile’s mobile business amounted to 975mn in Jan23, representing a MoM net addition of 0.5mn users.  The number of 5G package customers reached 622mn, with the net increase of 8.47mn in a month. Non-traditional business is being the new driver for the Company. Digital transformation revenue includes the revenues from new businesses from the “Customer” market (Mobile Cloud Drive and others), the revenues from smart home value-added businesses from the “Home” market, the revenues from DICT, IoT and dedicated lines businesses from the “Business” market and the revenue from the “New” market. Benefitting from the rapid growth of its digital content, smart home, 5G solutions for vertical industry sectors, mobile cloud and other information services businesses, the digital transformation revenue grew by 39.2% yoy to RMB110.8bn. Contributing 26.0% of telecommunications services revenue, the digital transformation services have become a key growth driver, showing a strong upward trajectory as the Company break new ground in the information services market as part of a new phase of its development. The profit to be distributed in cash for 2023 will gradually increase to 70% or above of the profit attributable to equity shareholders of the Company for that year. With a visible earning growth and dividend policy, China Mobile is an attractive defensive pick.  Target price: $70; Stop- Loss price: $56.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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