KGI Asia Commentary

2024.02.01 09:00

Hang Seng Index fell 218 points on Wednesday

The Hang Seng Index fell 218 points or 1.4% to 15,485 on Wednesday. HSTECH fell 93 points or 3.0% to 3,005 and HSCEI fell 81 points or 1.5% to 5,194. Daily market turnover was HK$98.8bn.

 

Nasdaq drops 2% after Fed indicates March rate cut unlikely

Stocks fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank may not be ready to cut interest rates in March. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 317.01 points, or 0.82%, to close at 38,150.30 points. The S&P 500 fell 1.61% to 4,845.65 points. The Nasdaq fell 2.23% to close at 15,164.01 points. It was a terrible trading day for the major stock indexes on Wednesday. It was the Dow's worst performance since December. For the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, it was the worst day since September and October. Alphabet shares fell more than 7%, posting their worst day since Oct. 25, as disappointing advertising revenue overshadowed earnings and sales that beat expectations. Tech companies Microsoft and AMD each fell nearly 3% after their forward guidance fell short of expectations after reporting quarterly results. Boeing announced its quarterly financial report, with revenue and profits exceeding analysts' expectations, and its stock price rose by more than 5%. Meanwhile, ahead of the Fed's statement, the ADP national employment report showed private payrolls rose by 107,000 in January, slightly less than expected.

 

Powell says rate cut in March unlikely

Traders are closely watching the Federal Reserve's statement for signs of when the central bank will start cutting interest rates. The Fed's policy statement released on Wednesday included several adjustments, deleting the phrase " additional policy firming," but indicating that the Fed is not considering further interest rate increases but is not yet ready to cut interest rates. Powell appeared to temper market expectations for a rate cut in March, citing the need for more encouraging inflation data.“Based on the meeting today, I would tell you that I don’t think it’s likely that the committee will reach a level of confidence by the time of the March meeting to identify March as the time to do that. But that’s to be seen,” Powell said.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net outflow of HK$0.63bn on Wednesday, of which Meituan (3690) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.25bn; followed by CCB (939). Tencent (700) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.35bn, followed by Xiaomi (1810).

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With a continuously rising share of revenue contribution from digital transformation, the revenue structure of China Mobile has become more balanced and robust, and the momentum of sustainable growth has been enhanced. Having a moderate growth in capital expenditure, its net profit margin is expected to rise steadily. The State Council previously announced that it will further study the inclusion of market value management in the performance assessment of the persons in charge of central SOEs. SOEs responded in affirmation. They vowed to actively carry out value management and value dissemination activities, and will adopt market capitalization management tools on a regular basis to safeguard company value and enhance shareholders' returns. By incorporating market value management into the KPI of state-owned enterprise management, it may promote Chinese telecommunications stocks to continue to increase their dividend payout ratios in the future. China Mobile is a pick with high growth visibility and attractive dividends. Target price: $74; Stop- Loss price: $61.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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