KGI Asia Commentary

2024.01.02 09:00

Hang Seng Index rose 4 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 23 points higher, at 17,066 points, and edged up 4 points in last Friday, at 17,047 points; the HSCEI rose 4 points, or 0.1%, to 5,768 points; the HSTECH was flat at 3,764 points. The market's total daily turnover was HK$75.1 billion. Xiaomi (1810) hinted at a press conference yesterday that the equivalent car of the SU7 would be priced at over 400,000, and the market expected the price to be as high as 500,000. Xiaomi's share price fell 4.2% today to HK$15.6.

 

The HSI mostly rose in the first trading week of each year

Today is the first trading day of New Year's Day. Since 2013, the HSI has recorded gains in the first trading week every year. Excluding the extremely high investment sentiment in early 2023 due to the market's expectation that the mainland would abandon the "zero case policy", the average increase was 1.1% per week. Seven of the nine years have seen weekly increases, and the worst performance was the decline in 2014, 426 points or -1.8%; the best performance in 2018 was an increase of 895 points or +3.0%.

 

U.S. stocks were closed for the New Year's Day holiday.

 

China’s New Year’s Day tourism numbers and revenue both exceed those before the epidemic

The domestic tourism boom in China continued to pick up on New Year's Day, with 135mn domestic tourist trips, an increase of 9.4% compared with 2019; while tourism revenue was RMb79.73bn, an increase of 5.6% compared with the same period in 2019. Meanwhile, it can be observed that on New Year's Day The revenue generated per person during the holidays is expected to fall, from RMb612 in 2019 to RMb591 in 2024, a decrease of ~4%. This may reflect the downgrading of residents' consumption was reflected in the quality of tourism.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HK$1.88bn on Friday, of which China Mobile (0941) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$640mn; followed by CNOOC (0883). Xiaomi Group (1810) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$240mn, followed by Meituan (3690).

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Operating revenue of China Mobile was RMB775.6bn, up by 7.2% yoy; of which, revenue from telecommunications services was RMB664.6bn, up by 7.2% yoy. EBITDA was RMB268.5bn, up by 6.7% yoy. As of November, the total number of mobile business customers was 990.9mn, with a net increase of 171,000 customers during the month, and a cumulative net increase of 15.9mn customers this year. The number of 5G package customers was 779mn, with a net increase of 20mn in November. In the first three quarters of the year, DICT revenue grew by 26.4% yoy to RMB86.6bn. With a continuously rising share of revenue contribution from digital transformation, the revenue structure of China Mobile has become more balanced and robust, and the momentum of sustainable growth has been enhanced. Having a moderate growth in capital expenditure, its net profit margin is expected to rise steadily. China Mobile is a pick with high growth visibility and attractive dividends. Target price: $74; Stop- Loss price: $56.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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