KGI Asia Commentary

2024.01.11 09:00

HSI fell 92 points on Wednesday

The Hang Seng Index fell 92 points or 0.6% to 16,097 on Wednesday. HSTECH fell 26 points or 0.8% to 3,428 and HSCEI fell 28 points or 0.5% to 5,421. Daily market turnover was HK$74.5bn.

 

U.S. stocks rise, led by large-cap stocks

U.S. stocks closed higher on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of new U.S. inflation data and corporate earnings reports. The S&P 500 rose 0.57% to close at 4,783.45 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 170.57 points to close at 37,695.73 points, an increase of 0.45%. The Nasdaq rose 0.75% to close at 14,969.65 points. Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Nvidia are the biggest contributors to the S&P 500. Communication services is the best-performing of the S&P's 11 major sectors, with Meta Platform shares up about 4% since September 2021 after Mizuho raised its price target on Meta Platform to $470 from $400. highest level. Nvidia shares hit a record high after fellow chipmaker TSMC beat fourth-quarter revenue estimates. On Friday, banking giants JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo are expected to report lower fourth-quarter profits.

 

Investors await inflation data

The market expects the consumer price index (CPI) to rise 0.2% in the last month of 2023 and 3.2% for the full year. Minutes of the meeting released last week did not show any discussion on the timetable for a rate cut. The current core task of the Federal Reserve is to adjust policy. It can neither be too loose and let inflation return, nor keep the policy too tight to avoid triggering a recession. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Wednesday it was too early to call for a rate cut because the Fed still has some distance to go on getting inflation back to its 2% target. Market participants have lowered expectations for a rate cut of at least 25 basis points in March to 65%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$2.56bn on Wednesday, of which Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.81bn; followed by CSOP HS TECH (3033). Tencent (700) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.80bn, followed by SMIC (981).

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To recap, Shenzhou International's revenue was RMB11.56 billion in 1H23, down 15% yoy. Net profit fell 10.1% yoy to RMB2.13bn. GPM and NPM maintained at around 22% and 18%. Among all segments, the sales of sportswear products fell by 20% yoy, mainly due to the decline in demand in Europe and the United States, and in the first half of the year, clients mainly Nike and Adidas were still in the destocking period, and they accounted for nearly 50% of Shenzhou's sales. Meanwhile, sales of casual wear products (Uniqlo, accounting for 21% of Shenzhou's revenue) increased by 10% yoy, mainly due to rising market demand in Japan and China. At present, Shenzhou's new factories in Cambodia and Vietnam are still in the expansion stage, and there is still room for further improvement in production efficiency. The share price of Shenzhou fell earlier due to customer Nike lowering its management guidance, but it is believed that the current price has generally responded to the negative factors. The market expects Shenzhou International's revenue to resume growth in 2024, with an average growth rate of approximately 15% in three years, while profits will continue to exceed 20%. The FY25PE is currently at 15X, which is a reasonable valuation. Target price: $95; Stop-Loss price: $68.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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