KGI Asia Commentary

2023.08.28 09:00

HSI fell 256 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 175 points lower at 18,037 points on Friday, and fell 256 points, or 1.4%, to 17,956 points at market close. The China Enterprises Index fell 92 points, or 1.5%, to 6,175 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 99 points, or 2.4%, to 4,059 points. The market turnover was HK$ 81.3 bn. ENN Energy (2688) announced its semi-annual results, turnover fell 7%, share price fell 16%. Netease (9999) quarterly revenue from games and related value-added services declined in the second quarter, and its stock price fell 6.7% throughout the day. AAC Technologies (2018) continued its downtrend, falling another 3.5%.

 

University of Michigan consumer confidence index falls

 

U.S. stocks closed up on Friday, with the Dow Jones up 247 points, or 0.73%, to 34,347 point. The Nasdaq up 127 points, or 0.94%, to 13,590 point. The S&P 500 up 29 points, or 0.67 %, to 4,406 points. The Dow fell 0.45% last week, its second straight weekly loss. The Nasdaq rose 2.26 percent and the S&P 500 rose 0.82 percent, both rebounding after three straight weeks of losses.

 

In terms of economic data, the final value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August in the United States was 69.5, slightly lower than the initial value of 71.2. Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the University of Michigan, said consumer confidence fell slightly in August after a sharp rise over the past few months. The long-term economic outlook fell about 12 percent this month, but remains higher than it was two months ago, despite improvements in purchases of durable goods and expectations for living conditions. Consumers weighed a combination of positive and negative factors in the economy, which resulted in different offsetting trends for different demographic groups. Consumers believe the economy's rapid upturn over the past three months has slowed, especially on inflation, and they are skeptical about the outlook ahead.

 

Powell said that if appropriate, interest rates may be further raised to suppress inflation

 

Markets are focused on a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. At the meeting, Powell pointed out that the economic growth rate is faster than the Fed's expectations, but the 2% inflation target is still too high, saying that there is still a long way to go to fight inflation. At the same time, he said in the meeting that he will cautiously decide whether to raise interest rates again in the future. Restraining policies, such as preparing to further raise interest rates, may be adopted until inflation met the target.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of 3.386 billion yuan on Friday, of which Meituan (3690) had the largest inflow of HK$1.18 billion; followed by South Hang Seng Technology (3033). Kuaishou (1024) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$193 million; followed by Tencent (700).

 

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Alibaba announced that its 1Q23 revenue was RMB234.15bn, an increase of 14% yoy, and its non-GAAP net income was RMB44.9bn, a yoy increase of 48%; adjusted EBITA increased by 32% yoy to RMB45.3bn. The yoy increase was mainly due to revenue growth and improved operating efficiency. All six major segment recorded improvement. Revenue from Taobao and Tmall Group increased by 12% yoy. In June 2023, Taobao app daily active users (DAU) increased by 6.5% yoy. Customer management revenue increased by 10% yoy, higher than market expectations, mainly due to the increased willingness to invest in merchant advertising and the increase in online physical goods GMV generated on Taobao and Tmall. EBITA was RMB49,319 million, up 9% yoy. During the quarter, Alibaba used USD3.1bn to repurchased its shares. There would be USD16.3 billion remained under the current share buyback program authorized by the Board, which is effective through March 2025. And the amount is around 6-7% of the current market cap. Overall, this quarter's performance is satisfactory. Meanwhile, share repurchases and the spin-off of its Cloud, Freshippo, and Cainiao businesses can continue to be the catalyst of Alibaba. Target price: $126; Stop- Loss price: $80.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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