KGI Asia Commentary

2023.05.09 09:00

HSI rose 247 points on Monday

Hong Kong stock market rose in mid-day driven by Chinese banking stocks and oil stocks performed well. The Hang Seng Index rose 149 points or 0.75% in mid-day, and the increase continued to expand afternoon. The HSI closed at 20,297, up 247 points or 1.2%. The HSTECH closed at 3,914, up 18 points or 0.5%. The HSCEI rose 99 points, or 1.5%, to 6,897 points. Market turnover was HK$108bn. China banking stocks generally performed well. Bank of Qingdao (3866) and China CITIC Bank (0998) rose 7.2% and 6.0% respectively. China broker sector also benefited from the rise in A-shares, of which GF Securities (1776) and CGS (6881) rose 4.6% and 4.9% respectively.

Apr U.S. CPI coming soon, market deploy gold in advance

. While U.S. CPI data for April will be announced on Wednesday, more fund flow has been deployed into gold in advance. Gold prices rebounded from $2,011 an ounce to $2,035 on May 5 and tried to approach the all-time high of $2,055. Although the Fed has made it clear that there is little chance of interest rate cuts this year, the market still expected to start interest rates cut as early as September. This may reflect fed will be forced to cut fed fund rate after there is a clear signal for U.S. economy recession.

The three major U.S. stock indexes moved in different directions. Last night, the Nasdaq composite performed the best, rising 21 points or 0.18% to close at 12,256 points; the S&P 500 rose 1 point or 0.01% to 4,138 points; the DJIA fell 55 points or 0.17%, It closed at 33,618 points.

Apr contracted sales of property sales was generally weak

Some Chinese listed developers have announced the contracted sales in April. Overall sales trends of SOE and private developers are different. COLI (0688), Yuexiu Property (0123), and Poly Properties (0119) have recorded sales growth ranging from 6.3% to 2.5x YoY; April sales ranged from an increase of 0.22% to a decrease of 17.8%. On the other hand, the sales of Country Garden (2007), CIFI Holdings (0884) and Agile (3383) ranged from an increase of 0.22% to a decrease of 17.8%. Considering that the YoY sales decline in April last year was the most serious, the YoY% sales growth in this year should record an all-rounded and strong rebound, reflecting that the mainland property market has not yet shown a recovery momentum. In addition, we shall alert that the sell-through rate of primary housing has continued to decline since February this year.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$1.82bn on Monday, of which CNOOC (0883) had the largest net inflow of HK$978mn, followed by BOC (3988). CCB (939) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$1.11bn; followed by Meituan (3690).

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HSBC
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HSBC announced its results for 1Q23. The net operating income before change in expected credit losses and other credit impairment charges was USD20.17bn, a yoy increase of 63.9%, and a qoq increase of about 38.5%. During the period, it has USD1.5bn came from acquisition gains and USD2.13bn from the reversal of impairment losses from French retail banking business. Excluding this part, the operating income increased by approx. 34.3% yoy and 13.5% qoq. Revenue increased by 64% to USD20.2bn. The increase was driven by higher net interest income in all of its global businesses due to interest rate rises. Net interest margin of 1.69% increased by 50bps compared with 1Q22, and by 1bps compared with 4Q22. The return on tangible equity was 19.3% (excluding one-off income), excluding the impact of strategic transactions. HSBC have announced its first quarterly dividend since 2019 of $0.10 per share, as well as a share buy-back of up to $2bn. It also expects to have substantial future distribution capacity for dividends and share buy-backs. Its current CET1 ratio is at 14.7%, increased by 0.5 percentage points compared with 4Q22. The current intention of the bank is to manage the CET1 ratio within its medium-term target range of 14% to 14.5%, with a dividend payout ratio of 50% for 2023 and 2024, excluding material notable items. HSBC's quarterly results beat expectations, together with the resumed distribution of quarterly dividends. The market reacted positively to the result and the company guidance. Target price: $72; Stop- Loss price: $55.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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