Daily Investment Strategy

2024.07.29 10:00

Hang Seng Index rose 16 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 75 points higher on Friday at 17,080 points, the index performance was mixed, rose 16 points, or 0.1%, to 17,021 points at market close; the HSCEI Index fell 6 points, or 0.1%, to 6,011 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 22 points or 0.7%, at 3,444 points. The total market turnover for the whole day was HK$104.7 billion. EastBuy (1797) Dong Yuhui resigned, and the stock price fell 23% to 9.5 yuan throughout the day. JD.com (9618) and Haier Smart Home (6690) benefited from the central government's launch of a home appliance trade-in subsidy policy, rose 3% and 6.1% respectively.

 

U.S. June PCE exceeded market expectations

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday. The Dow Jones index rose 654.27 points, or 1.64%, to 40589.34 points; the Nasdaq index rose 176.16 points, or 1.03%, to 17357.88 points; the S&P 500 index rose 59.88 points, or 1.11 %, reported 5459.10 points. Last week, the Dow Jones Index rose by 0.75%, the Nasdaq fell by 2.08%, and the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.83%. In terms of individual stocks, 3M's performance was better than market expectations and its stock price surged 23%. Technology stocks such as NVIDIA, Microsoft and Amazon also rebounded on Friday.

 

In terms of economic data, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Friday that the PCE price index edged up 0.1% month-on-month in June. The PCE price index YoY fell to 2.5% in June from 2.6% in May. The U.S. core PCE price index in June was 0.2% MoM, and the data in May was 0.1%. The U.S. PCE price index was generally in line with expectations. Overall, price pressures are receding, which could help Federal Reserve officials when they meet next week boost confidence that inflation is heading toward its 2% target.

 

Industrial enterprise profit growth in the first half of the year rose 3.5% year-on-year

The National Bureau of Statistics announced the profit growth of industrial enterprises in the first half of the year over the weekend. Due to the decline in operating income costs, profit growth slightly expanded by 0.1 percentage points to 3.5% compared with the performance in the first five months; revenue growth remained at 2.9%. In terms of industries, among the 41 major industrial industries, 32 industries saw year-on-year profit growth in the first half of the year, which was the same as in the first five months.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HK$8.77 billion on Friday, of which Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$6 billion; followed by Hang Seng China Enterprises (2828). China Mobile (941) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$900 million, followed by China Construction Bank (939).

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The Hang Seng Index fell by over 300 points yesterday, briefly dropping below the 17,000-point level and breaching all its key moving averages. The China SOE stocks that have been supporting the market have also faced significant pullbacks recently. The clear weakening of the index is mainly due to global capital being in a risk-off mode, as evidenced by the Nikkei 225 dropping over 10% from its recent high on July 11th. Weaker-than-expected policy measures from the central government and weak economic data have also accelerated the downtrend in the Hong Kong stock market. From a technical perspective, the next short-term support level for the Hang Seng Index is the previous upward gap at 16,800 points, and a break below that could see it test the April low of 16,200 points. If the Hang Seng Index is unable to break above the downward trend that formed since May, the bearish sentiment is likely to persist. Investors may consider deploying inverse ETFs (such as 7300) to hedge their risk exposure.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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