KGI Asia Commentary

2023.03.13 09:00

Hang Seng Index fell 606 points on last Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 345 points lower today to 19,580 point. The trend continued to weaken throughout the day. It closed down 606 points, or 3%, to 19,320 point; The China Enterprises Index fell 204 points or 3.1% to 6,446 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 149 points or 3.8% to 3,782 points. The total daily turnover of the market was HK$ 166.4 bn. JD.com (9618) slumped over 11% to HK$158.7 after the results. As for EV stocks, the market was worried about the impact of the price war. BYD (1211) fell 8%, and Geely (175) fell over 5%.

 

Regulators guarantee deposits for Silicon Valley bank depositors

Last weekend, the collapse of US bank Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.US) sent shockwaves through the market. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is the largest bank failure since the 2008 financial crisis, causing bank stocks to plummet. Silicon Valley Bank also provided financing for a number of new technology companies, so the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank will make them face disaster. The U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) issued a joint statement stating that depositors' deposits are guaranteed. Funding will be provided to eligible thrifts for up to a year to ensure banks have the capacity to meet the needs of all depositors.

All three major U.S. indexes fell. The Dow fell 442.4 points, or 1.37%, to 31,812.5points, the fourth consecutive day of decline. The S&P 500 fell 65.6 points, or 1.67%, to 3,852.5; the Nasdaq fell 231.5 points, or 2.04%, to 11,108.7.

US Non-farm payrolls beat consensus

In addition to the Silicon Valley bank collapse crisis, another market focus is believed to be the U.S. February non-farm payrolls. the number of NPA was 311,000, which was higher than the expected 225,000. The January data was revised down from 517,000 to 504,000. Although the figures are higher than consensus, there is a significant drop in MoM basis. In addition, the unemployment rate in February also rose from 3.4% to 3.6%, and the hourly wages in February increased by 4.6% YoY, which was slightly lower than the expected 4.7%. This has become a point for the Fed to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points in March instead of 50 basis points.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$1.33bn on Friday, of which Li Auto (2015) had the largest net inflow of HK$401mn; followed by Xpev Motors (9868). Xiaomi (1810) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$250mn; followed by BYD (1211).

 

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The Company’s results were impacted by the fifth wave of COVID-19 in the first half of 2022, which had negative effects on patronage, fare revenue and revenue from commercial rentals, although property development profit offset this to some degree. Profit attributable to equity shareholders from recurrent businesses was HKD1,119 million before the HKD962 million impairment provision made in respect of Shenzhen Metro Line 4, while property development profit increased by 12.2% to HKD10,480 million. Profit attributable to shareholders from underlying businesses was HKD10,637 million. Including the loss arising from fair value measurement of investment properties, net profit attributable to the shareholders of the Company was HKD9,827 million, representing a 2.88% yoy growth. Since the reopening of international borders and Mainland boundaries in early 2023, there has been gradual recoveries in railway patronage and retail traffic. And thus, recurring business is expected to resume gradually. CEO of MTR said that railroad ticketing revenue is the main stable source of income for the company, but it dropped significantly during the epidemic in the past three years. He said MTR is currently reviewing the fare adjustment mechanism, and expected the review to complete in the first half of 2023. Total ordinary dividend for the year of HKD1.31 per share, representing an increase of 3.1% over that of 2021. The management of MTR emphasizes the maintenance of the progressive dividend policy, and it is expected that the company's future dividends will continue to increase.  Target price: $46; Stop- Loss price: $38.6.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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