KGI Asia Commentary

2023.09.11 09:00

HSI fell 248 points on Thursday

The Hang Seng Index opened 13 points lower on Thursday and then extended its losses, falling 248 points or 1.34% to 18,202 points for the day. The H-Share Index fell 89 points or 1.4% to 6,314 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index fell 85 points or 2% to 4,091 point. The market turnover was HK$86.8 bn U.S. Congressman states SMIC (981) violated sanctions, and the market was worried that the United States may further restrict SMIC.  The stock price fell 7.6% to HK$19.82. In addition, oil prices continued to rise, PetroChina (857) and CNOOC (883) bucked the trend and rose 2.9% and 0.5% respectively.

 

Fed officials say they may not raise interest rates in September

U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Friday. The Dow Jones index rose 76 points, or 0.22%, to 34,576 points. The Nasdaq index rose 13 points, or 0.09%, to 13,761 points. The S&P 500 index rose 6.35 points, or 0.14%, reported 4,457 point. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded losses this week. The Dow fell 0.75%, the S&P 500 fell 1.29%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.93%.

 

In terms of economic data, some economic data released this week once again confirmed investors' concerns about the Federal Reserve's further interest rate hikes. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States unexpectedly fell to 216,000 last week, the lowest number since mid-February, lower than the 230,000 expected by economists surveyed by Dow Jones, as reported on Thursday. The market is worried that the Fed's monetary policy tightening may be greater than expected. However, on Friday, Fed officials stated that the central bank would not further raise interest rates at the September monetary policy meeting. The dollar's gains were hindered, and the dollar index was currently at 104.99.

 

China's CPI rose 0.1%

On Saturday, the National Bureau of Statistics released the latest national consumer price index (CPI). The August data increased by 0.1% from a decrease, and the month-on-month increase was 0.3 percentage points faster than July to 0.5%. China's CPI index did not continue to remain negative, which helped alleviate market concerns about China's falling into deflation.

 

The market was suspended for one day due to weather conditions last Friday. The net inflow of Southbound Stock Connect on Thursday was HK$ 7.047 bn . Among them, Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$ 2.13 bn, followed by Hang Seng China Enterprises (2828). Tencent Holdings (700) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$95 million, followed by Meituan (3690).

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China Mobile’s 1H23 operating revenue was RMB530.7bn, or growth of 6.8% yoy. Of this, the telecommunications services revenue accounted for RMB452.2bn, an increase of 6.1% yoy. China Mobile is steadily advancing its transition from traditional to new growth drivers, with a continuously rising share of revenue contribution from digital transformation. This has underscored the value contribution of digital transformation as its “second curve” of revenue growth. The digital transformation revenue contributed 84.1% to the incremental telecommunications services revenue and was the strongest driver of revenue growth. Profit attributable to equity shareholders was RMB76.2bn, an increase of 8.4% yoy. EBITDA was RMB183.5bn, an increase of 5.5% yoy. The 2023 interim dividend amounted to HKD2.43 per share, representing an increase of 10.5% yoy. Full-year profit to be distributed in cash in 2023 will increase to 70% or above of the profit attributable to equity shareholders of the Company for the year. With a visible earning growth and dividend policy, China Mobile is an attractive defensive pick.  Target price: $76; Stop- Loss price: $62.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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