KGI Asia Commentary

2024.08.19 10:00

Hang Seng Index rose 321 points on Friday

the Hang Sang Index closed up 321 points or 1.9% to 17,430 points; the HSCEI Index rose 127 points or 2.1% to 6,162 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 74 points or 2.2%, reported at 3,459 points. The total daily turnover of the market was HK$101.4 billion.

 

Consumer confidence index rebounds

U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday. The Dow Jones index rose 96.83 points, or 0.24%, to 40659.89 points; the Nasdaq index rose 37.22 points, or 0.21%, to 17631.72 points; the S&P 500 index rose 11.04 points, or 0.20%, reported 5554.26 points. All three major U.S. stock indexes recorded gains last week, with the Dow rising 2.94% for the week, its largest weekly gain so far this year. The S&P 500 rose 3.93% and the Nasdaq rose 5.29%, both recording their largest weekly gains since November.

 

In terms of economic data on Friday, the University of Michigan consumer confidence index in August also rebounded from 66.4 in July to the latest 67.8, which was higher than market expectations of 66.9. The index rebounded for the first time in five months. The University of Michigan's one-year and five-year inflation expectations were consistent with the previous values, at 2.9% and 3% respectively.

 

The new housing starts was lower than market expectations, with the annualized monthly rate falling by 6.8% to a seasonally adjusted 1.238 million units, lower than the market consensus of 1.33 million units. The operating rate fell 16% from the same period last year, matching a survey on Thursday that showed confidence of U.S. homebuilders fell for the fourth consecutive month.

 

Market Focus on Jackson Hole Conference

This week, market focus turns to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting and the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting. The theme of this central bank meeting is "Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy."

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HK$4.72 billion on Friday, of which Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$2.38 billion; followed by Southern Hang Seng Technology (3033). Meituan-W (3690) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$258 million; followed by China Construction Bank (939).

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Alibaba's quarter revenue came in at RMB243.24 bn, up 4% yoy, slightly missing expectations. However, the decline of adjusted net income was less than expected, with adjusted net income of RMB40.69 bn, down 9.4% yoy. Alibaba's CFO expects most of the group's businesses outside the core e-commerce segment to achieve profitability within 1-2 years and gradually contribute meaningful profitability. Additionally, Alibaba is seeking a primary listing in Hong Kong, with a shareholder meeting scheduled on August 22 to propose the change. If approved, the transition is expected to be completed by the end of August 2024, and later on allowing for potential inclusion in the Stock Connect program. Overall, while the revenue missed expectations, management's guidance indicates that CMR growth is expected to gradually catch up with GMV growth in the coming quarters, providing market confidence. Despite ongoing industry competition, the positive management outlook explains the rally after the result announcement. But we think it would be better for investors to use the average dollar costing method to manage the investment risk.  Target price: $89; Stop- Loss price: $72.5.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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