KGI Asia Commentary

2024.01.26 09:00

HSI rose 312 points on Thursday

HSI rose 312 pts or 2.0% to 16,211. HSTI rose 29 pts or 0.9% to 3,310. HSCEI gained 115 pts or 2.2% to 5,468. Market turnover reached $132.09 billion.

 

S&P closes higher for sixth straight day, boosted by strong GDP data

The S&P 500 rose for a sixth straight day, overcoming a decline in Tesla shares, as data showed continued economic growth. The S&P 500 index rose 0.53% to close at 4,894.16 points, setting another record closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 242.74 points, or 0.64%, to 38,049.13 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose just 0.18% to 15,510.50 points, dragged down by Tesla's stock decline. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) shares rose 9%, fueling gains in technology stocks, after the company reported fourth-quarter results that beat analysts' expectations. American Airlines Group shares rose 10% after the airline reported better-than-expected quarterly reports and annual guidance, anticipating strong travel demand to boost performance. Tesla shares fell more than 12% after the company reported lower-than-expected fourth-quarter results and warned of a "significant decline" in sales growth this year.

 

Market veteran Ed Yardeni warns of potential stock market crash

Market veteran Ed Yardeni is increasingly concerned about a stock market crash. The stock market has hit consecutive record highs over the past week, prompting some cautious comments from Yardeni, who worries that the stock market rally has gone too far, too fast, and may eventually encounter the type of meltup and meltdown that happened during the late 1990s. Yardeni said indicators such as the put/call ratio are sending contrarian bearish signals.

 

U.S. fourth-quarter growth surprises to upside to bolster hopes of soft landing

Gross domestic product (GDP) data showed that the U.S. economy grew by 3.3% in the fourth quarter of last year, driven by stronger consumer spending. That was well above the 2% expected by economists, underscoring the economy's resilience despite the Federal Reserve's rate hikes. Thursday's report also included encouraging inflation data. The core personal consumption expenditures deflator (Core PCE), which excludes food and energy, rose 2% quarterly. Headline inflation rose only 1.7%.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$1.81bn on Thursday, of which CNOOC (883) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.33bn; followed by China Mobile (941). Tencent (700) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$1.12bn, followed by Ping An (2318).

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It is the market consensus that the interest rate cut cycle will begin. AIA’s embedded value (EV) can increase when interest rates fall. Meanwhile, AIA has a solid fundamental when compared to peers. To recap, AIA delivered a 35% increase in VONB to US$994 million in 3Q23, supported by strong performances across its distribution channels, with VONB from the proprietary agency and partnership distribution increased by 27% and 62% respectively. VONB growth was broad-based with double-digit increases from operations in Mainland China, Hong Kong, ASEAN and India. AIA China’s VONB growth was over 20% in 3Q23, an acceleration from the first half. The demand for long-term savings products remained strong, meanwhile, the Group also delivered very strong double-digit VONB growth from critical illness products. Target price: $86; Stop-Loss price: $59.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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