Daily Investment Strategy

2024.06.17 09:47

Hang Seng Index fell 170 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 84 points lower on Friday, at 18,028 points, and fell 170 points, or 0.9%, to 17,942 points for the day; the China National Index fell 47 points, or 0.7%, to 6,374 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 31 points, or 0.8%, to 6,374 points; 3,707 points. The total daily turnover of the market was HK$116.2 billion. Mainland property stocks performed well last Friday, with Longfor (960) and China Resources Land (1109) rising 4% and 0.5% respectively. Chow Tai Fook (1929) announced a 21% increase in net profit for the year to the end of March, but the lack of a special dividend disappointed the market and its stock price fell 8.9%.

 

U.S. consumer confidence index continues to fall

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday, with the Nasdaq hitting record highs for five consecutive trading days. The Dow fell 57.61 points, or 0.15%, to 38589.49 points; the Nasdaq rose 21.32 points, or 0.12%, to 17688.88 points; the S&P 500 fell 2.10 points, or 0.04%, to 5431.64 points. Last week, the S&P 500 index fell 0.54%, the Nasdaq rose 3.24%, and the S&P 500 index rose 1.58%. The overall index performance is still driven by AI concept stocks and large technology stocks.

 

In terms of economic data, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index in the United States dropped from 69.1 to 65.6 in June, which was far lower than market expectations of 72. In addition, in terms of inflation expectations, prices will rise at an annual rate of 3.1% in the next five to ten years, slightly higher than the 3% expected in May. Consumer Inflation expectation remains at 3.3% over the next year, unchanged from the previous month's forecast. High inflation expectations may weaken market consumption. The economic environment of the consumer goods industry chain may continue to be under pressure, and investors will continue to favor AI related companies.

 

The People's Bank of China releases financial data

The People's Bank of China released a number of data last Friday. In May, M1 fell by 4.2% year-on-year due to a decrease in corporate demand deposits, while M2 maintained a positive growth of 7%, partly driven by the inflow of funds into wealth management products. In terms of social financing, May increased by RMB 513.2 billion year-on-year, mainly driven by government financing and corporate bond financing. However, RMB loans to entities increased by RMB 406.2 billion year-on-year. Residential loans increased year-on-year, while corporate loans increased by RMB 513.2 billion year-on-year, driven by bill financing.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HK$5.8 billion on Friday, of which Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$930 million; followed by China Mobile (941). Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$370 million, followed by Xiaomi (1810).

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Entering summer, market statistics show that high temperatures during the year generally occur from July to August. Many regions in the mainland have successively issued high temperature warnings. This summer may usher in another "heat" wave. Along with the hot weather, investors can pay attention to the performance of power sector. According to historical data, the annual social electricity consumption peak is basically consistent with the occurrence of high temperature weather, both occurring in July-August. As industrial production improves this year, electricity consumption may further increase in hot weather. Driven by these two factors, the growth of electricity consumption this year may accelerate. President Xi Jinping hosted a meeting of business and industry experts in Shandong at the end of last month to discuss issues related to deepening the reform of the mainland's power industry. There may be further news at the Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee. Target price: $3.6; Stop- Loss price: $3.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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