KGI Asia Commentary

2024.05.17 09:47

HSI rose 302 points on Thursday

The Hang Seng Index rose 302 points or 1.6% to 19,376 on Thursday. HSTECH rose 30 points or 0.8% to 4,072 and HSCEI rose 129 points or 1.9% to 6,871. Daily market turnover was HK$204.8bn.

 

The Dow closed lower on Thursday, after briefly breaching 40,000

The Dow closed slightly lower on Thursday, with the index briefly breaking through 40,000 points for the first time. The index was close to the 40,000-point mark earlier this year, but retreated slightly in April on worries about higher interest rates. The rally reignited in May on the back of strong earnings and cooling inflation data. The Dow Jones index fell 38.62 points to close at 39,869.38 points, a decrease of 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.21% to close at 5,297.10 points. The Nasdaq index fell 0.26% on the day and closed at 16,698.32 points. Walmart shares rose 7% after the company reported first-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and profit. Shares of Canada Goose Holdings surged more than 15% after the apparel maker reported better-than-expected fourth-quarter results and expressed optimism about the prospect of improved annual profit margins. Meanwhile, Cisco Systems shares fell more than 2% as the company lowered its annual earnings forecast, masking an increase in its revenue forecast and better-than-expected quarterly results. Meta platform's stock price fell nearly 2%. The European Commission launched an investigation into Facebook's parent company, saying that the company violated the EU's strict online content law to do with child safety risks.

 

Rate cut expectations continue

Bets for a rate cut in September continued to provide support for the stock market, with a lower-than-expected consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday followed by data showing the job market was cooling. Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 222,000 in week ended on May 11, down from the upwardly revised 232,000 the previous week. Economists had expected a reading of 219,000. However, U.S. Treasury yields rebounded from weakness a day earlier as a Fed speaker remained cautious. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester believes it will take longer than previously thought to reach the 2% target and said incoming data will need to be further monitored.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK3.9bn on Thursday, of which BOC (3988) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$2.2bn; followed by Tencent (700). Tracker Fund (2800) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$1.7bn, followed by HSCEI ETF (2828).

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The trading volume of HK market has recently increased significantly. HKEX can be directly benefited. Although there is a decline on an annual basis, HKEX recorded improvement on a quarter basis. Compared with 4Q23, revenue and other income in 1Q24 was up by 7 per cent, attributable to higher trading and clearing fees from higher volumes across all markets, and the non-recurring losses on the valuation of the Group’s unlisted equity investments of $246 million recorded in 4Q23. In terms of transaction volume, cash market Headline ADT was $99.4 billion in 1Q24, 9 per cent higher than 4Q23, but 22 per cent lower than 1Q23. Recent initiatives announced by the China Securities Regulatory Commission, such as the expansion of eligible ETFs and the inclusion of Real Estate Investment Trusts in Stock Connect, the addition of RMB-denominated stocks in Southbound Stock Connect, as well as supporting leading Mainland companies to list in Hong Kong. Although these measures may not have a great impact in the short term, there maybe stimulating effect on the average daily trading volume when the market sentiment further improves. We reiterate buy and raise the TP. Target price: $310; Stop- Loss price: $260.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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