KGI Asia Commentary

2023.03.07 09:00

Hang Seng Index rose 35 points on Monday

The Hang Seng Index opened 129 points lower yesterday morning, and then rose 135 points to reach day high of 20,702. However, the upward trend was weak afterwards. HSI rose 35 points or 0.2% to close at 20,603. HSCEI fell 2 points or 0.0% to close at 6,937. HSTECH fell 34 points or 0.8% to close at 4,177. The market's full-day turnover totaled HK$109.08bn. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the development of 6G networks will be accelerated, China Tower (0788) and China Communication Service (0552) rose nearly 7.9% and 5.3% respectively.

 

The inconsistent direction of the European Central Bank reflects the obvious economic differences in Europe

The Austria ECB policymaker believes that the ECB should raise a 50bps interest rates in the next four meetings. He expected that interest rates began to restrict economic growth at 4%, and there was a 100 -point difference against current rate. However, on behalf of Portugal policymaker believed that the recent rate hike is too fast, and ECB should take time to observe how 3 % rate hikes affect inflation and the economy. Such different views reflect the different economic conditions of the economies of the euro zone. For example, Portugal's current 10 -year Treasury bond interest rate has been a new high in the past five years, and the increase in interest rates will increase domestic financing costs.

 

The three major indexes of the US stocks rose first and then retreated, and the Nasdaq Index fell 13 points or 0.11% to 11,675; the D&J index rose 40 points or 0.12%; the S&P 500 index rose 2 or 0.1% to 4,048.

 

Different contract sales trend of state -owned and private housing companies in February

After experiencing the relaxation of covid19 measures and CNY holiday, some mainland developers have announced their February contract sales. In terms of state -owned enterprises, COLI (0688) Feb contract sales was RMb27.42bn, an increase of 153% YoY. Yuexiu (0123) sales last month increased by 386% to RMb13.7bn. In terms of private enterprises, Agile (3383) announced that the pre-sale figure was RMb6.1bn yuan, a YoY decrease of 8.9%. Only Central China (0832) has recorded +83% YoY growth of contract sales. Based on last week Country Garden (2007) and Times China (1233) recorded a decline in sales year. The recovery of the first -hand property market is currently concentrated in SOE. The outlook prospect of property market depends on whether government policy will be adjusted significantly.

The net inflow of the Hong Kong Stock Connect was HK$2.27bn on Monday, of which China Mobile (0941) had a net inflow of most, reaching HK$505mn; followed by the HKEx (0388). CCBC (0939) recorded the net outflow at the maximum of HK$340mn; followed by CNOOC (0883).

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Hong Kong's January retail sales rose 7% and increased to HK$36.2 billion in a second consecutive month of growth, and being the highest value since Jan 2020. The growth is well above expectation. In past few years, tourist arrivals in Hong Kong significantly decreased during the pandemic, affecting Hysan’s rental business in Causeway Bay, and had a negative impact on the valuation of investment properties. Yet, with the border reopened, the retail market is recovering.  Hysan’s investment property portfolio comprises three sectors – office, retail and residential – covering a total floor area of approximately 4.5 million square feet. As at 31 December 2021, office properties made up around 55% of the Group’s investment portfolio by gross floor area, with retail properties accounting for approximately 30%. These properties are located in Lee Gardens, Causeway Bay. It can be said that Hysan is one of the Hong Kong real estate companies largely affected by the sales of luxury goods in Hong Kong, so it is a beneficiary of the recovery of the local tourism industry.  Target price: $28; Stop- Loss price: $22.6.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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