Daily Investment Strategy
Daily focus：Xiaomi（1810）
On January 8, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance announced a large-scale equipment renewal and trade-in policy for consumer goods to be implemented in 2025. Xiaomi can be benefitted. Recently, IDC indicated that starting from the fourth quarter of 2024, the Chinese smartphone market is steadily recovering, with the pent-up demand for device upgrades over the past three years gradually being released. This new policy is expected to further accelerate consumer upgrades. In 3Q25, Xiaomi's smartphone ASP was RMB1,102, reflecting potential benefits from a wave of low-priced smartphone upgrades. Additionally, Xiaomi holds an 18.1% market share in the RMB3,000-4,000 price range and a 22.6% share in the RMB4,000-5,000 price range, making these customer segments likely to fully utilize the RMB500 subsidy; thus, Xiaomi is expected to be highly sensitive to this policy. Any share price pullback may provide buying opportunities. Target price: $38.
Fed’s Collins expects fewer rate in 2025
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stated on Thursday that there is significant uncertainty regarding the economic outlook, thus the Fed should proceed cautiously with future rate cuts. “With an economy that is in a good place overall and policy already closer to a more neutral stance, I view the current nature of uncertainty as calling for a gradual and patient approach to policymaking,” She added that while the job market "stayed healthy overall" and has rebalanced from overheating conditions, lower inflation has been achieved. Collins also remarked, “it is too early to tell how future policy changes by the new administration and Congress might influence the trajectories of inflation and economic activity.” She did not provide a firm opinion on the future direction of monetary policy but indicated that her views on rate policy and the economy align with the forecasts released by the Fed at its meeting last month.
Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$11.3bn on Thursday of which Tencent (700) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$6.0bn; followed by Xiaomi (1810). Meituan (3690) recorded the largest net outflow at $0.69bn, followed by Anta Sports (2020).
Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.
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