Daily Investment Strategy

2024.09.24 10:00

Hang Seng Index fell 11 points on Monday

The Hang Seng Index closed at 18,247 points for the day, fell 11 points or 0.1%. The Hang Seng Technology Index reported at 3,698 points, fell 5 points or 0.2%. The HSCEI Index rose 7 points, or 0.1%, to 6,389 points. The market turnover was HK$124.28billion.

 

S&P 500 rises to new closing high on Monday

The S&P 500 climbed to a new closing high on Monday as traders looked to extend last week's gains after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates. The broader market index rose 0.28% to close at 5,718.57 points; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 61.29 points to close at 42,124.65 points, an increase of 0.15%. Both indexes closed at record levels. The Nasdaq rose 0.14% to 17,974.27 points. The move follows a good week on Wall Street, driven largely by the Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, its first rate cut in four years. Despite some volatility following the initial announcement, stocks rebounded in the days that followed. Investors analyzed the latest economic data on Monday, including a U.S. manufacturing PMI that fell to a 15-month low in August.

 

The PCE price index to be released this week

A series of Fed officials and rate-setting committee members are set to speak this week, most notably Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday. Chicago Fed President Goolsby said on Monday that he expects " many more rate cuts over the next year " as the central bank seeks a soft landing for the economy. The PCE price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - is due out on Friday and is expected to provide more clues on interest rates.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK8.4bn on Monday of which Tracker Fund (2800) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$3.93bn; followed by Alibaba (9988). Meituan (3690) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.8bn, followed by Tencent (700).

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China Unicom announced that the aggregate number of its "Big Connectivity" subscribers reached about 1.09 billion with a net increase of 12.721 million in a single month, accelerating from the net increase of 12.111 million in July. Of which, the aggregate number of 5G package subscribers amounted to around 282 million with a net increase of 3.492 million in a single month, faster than the net increase of 2.882 million in July. Looking back at China Unicom's interim result, the company reported operating revenue of RMB197.3bn, a yoy increase of 2.9%, though this is a slowdown from 8.8% in the same period of 2023. Among this, Unicom Cloud generated revenue of RMB31.7bn, representing a yoy growth of 24.3%, compared to 30.3% in the 1Q24 and 41.6% in 2023. 1H24 EBITDA was RMB55bn, a yoy increase of 2.7%, which is also lower than the 4.1% growth seen in the same period of 2023. This explains why the stock prices of Chinese telecom companies have been relatively weak, as the market is concerned about the slowdown in industry growth. However, there is still room for an increase in the dividend payout ratio. The board has decided to declare an interim dividend of RMB0.2481 per share, a yoy increase of 22.2%, significantly higher than the earning growth, and also greater than the dividend increases of the other two competitors. Currently, China Unicom's dividend payout ratio remains below 60%, indicating there is still a gap compared to the other two companies. The lower valuation reflects the visibility of lower ARPU, but from a yield perspective, it still holds investment value, and it is recommended to accumulate shares with Dollar Cost Averaging. Target price: $7; Stop- Loss price: $6.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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