Daily Investment Strategy

2024.09.19 10:00

Hang Seng Index rose 237 points on Tuesday

The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,660 points for the day, rose 237 points or 1.4%. The Hang Seng Technology Index reported at 3,536 points, rose 39 points or 1.1%. The HSCEI Index rose 85 points, or 1.4%, to 6,176 points. The market turnover was HK$63.0billion.

 

S&P 500 ends seven-day winning streak as Fed announces sharp rate cut

U.S. stocks ended lower on Wednesday amid turmoil as the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.5%. The sharp rate cut was initially welcomed by traders, but also raised concerns that the Fed was trying to get ahead of potential economic weakness. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 103.08 points, or 0.25%, to close at 41,503.10 points. The index rose as much as 375.79 points after the Fed's decision. The S&P 500 fell 0.29% to close at 5,618.26 points. The Nasdaq fell 0.31% to 17573.30 points. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones initially hit record highs, but have since retreated. Intuitive Machines shares rose 38% after it won a $5 billion contract for lunar communications and navigation services from NASA. Among retail stocks, Victoria’s Secret & Co was a standout, rising 3%, after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from underweight, citing a more balanced valuation.

 

Fed cuts interest rates by a half point

The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75%-5% on Wednesday, its first rate cut since the outbreak of the new coronavirus. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell tried to ease concerns at a press conference after the meeting that the Fed cut interest rates sharply because the upside risks to inflation have declined significantly. Powell said he sees no signs in the economy that indicate an increased likelihood of a recession. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by another half point before the end of 2024. The central bank has two more policy meetings to do so.

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The momentum of the china banks sector had been weak after their quarter results announcement. The declines have been stabilizing recently. Bank of China’s overall performance for the second quarter met expectations, achieving operating revenue of RMB317.9bn for 1H24, a yoy decline of 0.56%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB118.6bn, down 1.24% yoy. During the period, net interest income reached RMB226.76bn, a decrease of 3.09%. Non-interest income totaled RMB91.169bn, an increase of 6.36%, with net fee and commission income at RMB42.86bn, down 7.5%. In 2Q24, revenue grew by 2.1% yoy, and net profit rose by 0.3%, recovering from a 2.9% decline in the first quarter. 1H24 PPoP fell by 2.7% to RMB209.7bn, while PPoP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% yoy (compared to a 5.2% decline in the first quarter), primarily due to easing net interest margin pressure and strong investment income offsetting the impact of weak fee income. The net interest margin stabilized in the second quarter, with loan business maintaining steady and balanced growth. As of the end of June, total loans amounted to RMB21,142.83bn, an increase of RMB1,181bn or 5.92% compared to year end. The net interest margin for 1H24 was 1.44%, down 23 basis points from the same period last year. However, the net interest margin in the second quarter outperformed expectations, remaining stable at 1.44%. The tier 1 core capital adequacy ratio was 12.03% for 1H24, up 1bp qoq, indicating stable capital levels. The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.24%, unchanged from the previous quarter. The interim dividend was RMB0.1208, with a payout ratio of approximately 30%. With the dividend yield of over 7%, the stock remains attractive in certain extent. Target price: $4; Stop- Loss price: $3.2.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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