KGI Asia Commentary

2023.10.30 09:00

Hang Seng Index rose 354 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index rose 354 points or 2.1% to 17,398 on Friday. HSTECH rose 93 points or 2.5% to 3,806 and HSCEI rose 119 points or 2.0% to 5,979. Daily market turnover was HK$91.4bn.

 

S&P 500 index fell into technical correction zone on Friday

Recession fears triggered a fresh round of selling that dragged the Dow lower on Friday and pushed the S&P 500 into correction territory. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%, or 337 points, while the Nasdaq rose 0.4%. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to end in technical correction zone at 4,118.93, with technology stocks giving back some gains despite gains in shares of Amazon and Intel. Shares of technology giant Amazon rose more than 6% after the company reported third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street expectations. Meanwhile, chipmaker Intel Corp rose more than 9% as the company drew praise from Wall Street for satisfactory third-quarter results and an increase in profit forecasts. Shares of Exxon Mobil and Chevron fell nearly 2% and 7% respectively after reporting disappointing quarterly results, dragging the entire energy sector lower. ExxonMobil's third-quarter revenue and profit fell short of Wall Street expectations, weighed down by weakness in its upstream operations, including its exploration and production stages. Meanwhile, Chevron reported lower-than-expected earnings due to lower margins at its refining operations.

 

Inflation continues to ease, but consumer spending rises more than expected

The core price consumer expenditure index, a measure of inflation closely watched by the Federal Reserve, slowed to an annual increase of 3.7%, in line with expectations, down from 3.9% in the previous month. While ongoing signs of slowing inflation will provide the Fed with further evidence that its restrictive monetary policy measures are having the desired effect, last month's stronger-than-expected pace of consumer spending could disrupt the Fed's policy decision. Consumer spending rose 0.7%, beating expectations for a 0.5% increase as households increased purchases of motor vehicles and traveled.

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net inflow of HK$2.2bn on Thursday, of which Meituan (3690) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.26bn; followed by SMIC (981). China Mobile (941) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.18bn, followed by CNOOC(883).

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Recently, oil prices have risen again due to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Earlier, Saudi Arabia and Russia extended their production cuts. Global crude oil supply will still be tight in the fourth quarter. The current market forecast is that the extension of production cuts by major oil-producing countries will lead to an oil gap of 3mn barrel/day. In addition, OPEC is also optimistic about the energy demand of major economies and adheres to its forecast of strong growth in global oil demand in 2023 and 2024.The fourth quarter is the peak period for oil demand. As the temperature gradually turns colder, fuel demand will continue to rise, which will provide certain support for oil prices. CNOOC has effective cost control, and its management is confident that it can fulfill its commitment to pay a full-year dividend of no less than HK70 cents and a dividend payout ratio of no less than 40%. According to Bloomberg, the dividend yield is expected to exceed 9% in 2023E and 2024E.Target price: $15.5; Stop- Loss price: $12.3.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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