Daily Investment Strategy

2024.09.17 10:00

Hang Seng Index rose 53 points on Monday

The Hang Seng Index closed at 17,422 points for the day, rose 53 points or 0.3%. The Hang Seng Technology Index reported at 3,497 points, rose 17 points or 0.5%. The HSCEI Index rose 18 points, or 0.3%, to 6,090 points. The market turnover was HK$47.9billion.

 

Dow hits new high ahead of Fed meeting

The S&P 500 edged higher on Monday as investors awaited a Federal Reserve meeting during which central bank officials are expected to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020. Meanwhile, the Dow rose to a new all-time high. The S&P 500 rose 0.13% to close at 5,633.09 points. The Dow Jones index rose 228.30 points to close at 41,622.08 points, an increase of 0.55%, setting a new closing high. At the same time, the Nasdaq index, which is dominated by technology stocks, fell 0.52% to close at 17592.13 points. Apple shares fell 2.8%, with analysts including Bank of America and JPMorgan noting that the timing of shipments could indicate demand for iPhone 16 Pro models will be lower than last year. Pfizer shares rose 2.7% after the company said its experimental drug showed positive results in mid-stage trials. The drug can treat problems that cause loss of appetite and weight loss in cancer patients. Boeing shares fell 0.7% on Monday after falling more than 3% on Friday as a strike by more than 30,000 workers entered its fourth day and the company and union negotiators will resume talks on labor contracts on Tuesday. Intel shares rose 6.4% on reports that the chipmaker has officially received up to $3.5 billion in federal grants to produce semiconductors for the U.S. Department of Defense. Alcoa shares rose 6.1% after the company said it would sell a 25.1% stake in its joint venture with Saudi Arabia's Ma'aden for $1.1 billion.

 

As the Fed meeting approaches, markets are divided on interest rate cuts

The FOMC meeting is widely expected to begin cutting interest rates, although traders are largely divided on the extent of the possible cuts. CME Fedwatch shows that the market expects a 50% chance of a 50-bp rate cut and a 50% chance of a 25-bp rate cut. Wednesday's move could set the tone for the Federal Reserve to begin its plan to ease monetary policy as it grapples with some concerns about a cooling economy and job market. However, recent economic data shows that inflation is still somewhat sticky.

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The momentum of the china banks sector had been weak after their quarter results announcement. The declines have been stabilizing recently. Bank of China’s overall performance for the second quarter met expectations, achieving operating revenue of RMB317.9bn for 1H24, a yoy decline of 0.56%. Net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB118.6bn, down 1.24% yoy. During the period, net interest income reached RMB226.76bn, a decrease of 3.09%. Non-interest income totaled RMB91.169bn, an increase of 6.36%, with net fee and commission income at RMB42.86bn, down 7.5%. In 2Q24, revenue grew by 2.1% yoy, and net profit rose by 0.3%, recovering from a 2.9% decline in the first quarter. 1H24 PPoP fell by 2.7% to RMB209.7bn, while PPoP in the second quarter increased by 0.1% yoy (compared to a 5.2% decline in the first quarter), primarily due to easing net interest margin pressure and strong investment income offsetting the impact of weak fee income. The net interest margin stabilized in the second quarter, with loan business maintaining steady and balanced growth. As of the end of June, total loans amounted to RMB21,142.83bn, an increase of RMB1,181bn or 5.92% compared to year end. The net interest margin for 1H24 was 1.44%, down 23 basis points from the same period last year. However, the net interest margin in the second quarter outperformed expectations, remaining stable at 1.44%. The tier 1 core capital adequacy ratio was 12.03% for 1H24, up 1bp qoq, indicating stable capital levels. The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.24%, unchanged from the previous quarter. The interim dividend was RMB0.1208, with a payout ratio of approximately 30%. With the dividend yield of over 7%, the stock remains attractive in certain extent. Target price: $4; Stop- Loss price: $3.2.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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