Daily Investment Strategy

2024.09.30 10:00

Hang Seng Index rose 708 points on Friday

The Hang Seng Index opened 522 points higher on Friday and then expanded its gains repeatedly. It once rose 819 points to 20,743 points, and rose 708 points or 3.6% to 20,632 points for the whole day; the H-Share Index rose 213 points or 3% to 7,300 points; the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 243 points or 5.8%, reported at 4,453 points. The total daily turnover of the market was HK$445.7 billion.

 

Personal consumption expenditures price index continues to slow

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Friday. The Dow Jones index closed up 137.89 points, or 0.33%, at 42,313 points; the Nasdaq index fell 70.70 points, or 0.39%, to 18,119.59 points; the S&P 500 index fell 7.20 points , a decrease of 0.13%, reported at 5738.17 points. Last week, the Dow Jones Index rose 0.59%, the S&P 500 Index rose 0.62%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.95%. All three major stock indexes posted gains for the third consecutive week.

 

In terms of economic data, inflation data that the Federal Reserve cares about was released on Friday. The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) in August increased by 0.1% month-on-month, in line with market expectations; year-on-year growth rose by 2.2%, lower than market expectations. 2.3% and 2.5% of the previous value; core PCE increased 0.1% month-on-month, lower than expected, and increased 2.7% year-on-year, in line with expectations. On the other hand, personal income and expenditure increased by an average of 0.2% month-on-month in August, which was lower than market expectations of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. A continued slowdown in inflation data and slightly softer income and spending data may help bolster confidence that the economy is cooling.

 

Industrial enterprise profit growth slowed significantly

The National Bureau of Statistics announced that profits of industrial enterprises increased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first eight months, a rapid slowdown from the previous value of 3.6%. Affected by the high base in August, single-month profits fell by 17.8% year-on-year. Revenue growth in the first eight months also slowed down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value to 2.4%. The problems of insufficient market demand and manufacturers' pricing power that were reflected in the Purchasing Managers' Index earlier are also reflected here.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect saw a net inflow of HK$6 billion on Friday, of which Alibaba (9988) had the largest inflow, reaching HK$5.86 billion; followed by Meituan (3690). China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$1.1 billion; followed by China Mobile (941).

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China has announced several policies to stimulate the economy, providing support for an undervalued stock market and improving overall market sentiment. On the last trading day of previous week, turnover exceeded RMB400 billion, which will directly benefit HKEX. HKEX's performance for 1H24 has been strong, with 2Q main business revenue rose by 8% qoq, driven by an increase in average daily turnover and higher trading volumes on the London Metal Exchange (LME), which boosted trading and clearing fees, along with seasonal factors leading to higher custody fees. Although the earnings performance of stocks in the third quarter may be impacted by the weakness of the Mainland economy, we believe that if these policies are successfully implemented, the market will continue to anticipate improvement in shareholder returns. With improved market sentiment, HKEX can be expected to perform better. Target price: $320; Stop- Loss price: $265.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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