Daily Investment Strategy
Daily focus：Samsonite（1910）
Samsonite expects 2025 results to gradually improve, driven by improved summer travel demand, product innovation, investments in non-travel categories, e-commerce expansion, and greater market penetration in Latin America. The company expects revenue to grow by about 2.5% in 2025 and intends to open 60 to 70 new stores. While US tariffs still cause uncertainty, the company's resilience has been enhanced as it has reduced its reliance on China for US market supply to 15%. In addition, the company plans to maintain a stable EBITDA margin by adjusting prices and payment terms with suppliers to address tariff risks.
U.S. consumer confidence has fallen to a more than two-year low while inflation expectations are rising rapidly
Recent economic indicators reveal a troubling decline in consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan's March preliminary reading plummeting to 57.9 from 64.7 in February, marking the lowest level since November 2022. This 11% drop affected all demographic groups across the country. While current conditions declined modestly by 3.3%, the expectations index tumbled 15.3%, reflecting a cumulative 30% decrease over the past year. Particularly concerning are inflation expectations, with consumers now anticipating year-ahead inflation of 4.9% (up from 4.3%) and long-term inflation of 3.9% (up from 3.5%), representing the largest monthly jump since 1993. Economists warn this sentiment decline poses "a real threat to consumer spending," which comprises two-thirds of US economic activity. The Federal Reserve faces a challenging dilemma as rising inflation expectations may prevent them from responding to economic weakness. With 70% of Americans expecting tariffs to increase everyday costs and forecasters raising recession probabilities from 25% to 35%, the uncertainty surrounding economic policies is creating a precarious outlook for the US economy.
Hong Kong Stock Connect recorded a net inflow of HK$4.35bn on Friday, of which Tencent recorded the largest net inflow of HK$2.22bn, followed by Alibaba (9988); Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800) recorded the largest net outflow of HK$3.04bn, followed by SMIC (0981).
Cheung Cho Shing, Joseph is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/ACQ030/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.
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