KGI Asia Commentary

2023.09.15 09:00

HSI rose 38 points on Thursday

The Hang Seng Index rose 38 points or 0.2% to 18,047 on Thursday. HSTECH rose 17 points or 0.4% to 4,059 and HSCEI rose 39 points or 0.6% to 6,275. Daily market turnover was HK$81.6bn.

 

Arm listing revives IPO market hopes, Dow jumps

U.S. stocks rose on Thursday despite stronger-than-expected inflation data, but at the same time, stronger-than-expected retail sales showed the resilience of the economy. The Dow Jones rose for three consecutive days, rising 331.58 points to 34,907.11 points, an increase of 0.96%. The S&P 500 rose about 0.84% to 4,505.10 points, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.81% to 13,926.05 points. Shares of chip design company Arm surged 24.7% after the market opened on Thursday. Investors hope the year's largest tech IPO can jump-start a sluggish IPO market. Arm's initial public offering on Wednesday priced at $51 per share. On its first day of trading, the stock closed at $63.59 per share. Additionally, investors digested a raft of economic reports that showed more benign core inflation data and strong consumer performance.

 

Both headline PPI and retail sales stronger than expected

Overall PPI was stronger than expected, but core PPI was under control. Excluding food and energy, core PPI rose 0.2% in August, in line with expectations. However, the overall PPI increased by 1.6% year-on-year, higher than the 1.2% expected, and increased by 0.7% from July, higher than the 0.4% expected. On the other hand, retail sales in August were better than expected, increasing 0.6%, while economists expected a 0.1% increase. Excluding automobiles, retail sales rose 0.6% last month, beating expectations for a 0.4% gain.

 

Hong Kong Stock Connect had a net outflow of HK$2.6bn on Thursday, of which CNOOC (883) had the largest net inflow, reaching HK$0.38bn; followed by Innovent Bio (1801). Tencent (700) recorded the largest net outflow at HK$0.17bn, followed by Easy Buy (1797).

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Non-IFRS net profit of Tencent increased by 33% yoy to RMB37.5bn, better than market expectation, mainly due to 1) better-than-expected advertising revenue growth (34% yoy growth); and gross margin improvement of 4.3 ppt YoY to 47.5%. Overall, profit growth outpaced revenue growth this quarter. The advertising business has achieved significant rapid growth, thanks to Tencent's application of machine learning capabilities on the advertising platform and the commercialization of video accounts. In addition, Tencent is providing model libraries for partners via Tencent Cloud Model as a Service (MaaS), and is also polishing its own proprietary foundation models. The main catalysts in the future will include positive factors such as the resumption of growth of domestic games in the third quarter and continued growth of video accounts.  Target price: $430; Stop- Loss price: $300.

Wen Kit Kenny is a SFC licensed person accredited to KGI Group to carry on regulated activities (for details, please refer to:https://apps.sfc.hk/publicregWeb/indi/AJF244/details). He and/or his associate do not have any financial interest in the recommended issuer or new listing applicant.

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